Cheap "Follower of Cranach"

UPDATE: see also the important follow-up post about this painting.

At Jackson's, auction house from Iowa, they sell on 16 June a "Follower of Lucas Cranach the Elder" copy of the Virgin and Child under the Apple Tree, 78 by 54 cm and estimated at $1,000 to $1,500.

The original can be found in the Hermitage. The two are nearly identical, some minor differences like the position of the veil or the apples only, and nearly identical in size as well. The Hermitage version is clearly superior though, in detail, colouring, ...

If it really is a "follower", in the auction sense of a painter close in time (and usually space) to the named artist, then this is extremely cheap. Even poor Cranach copies often fetch a few thousand dollars, and this copy is very well painted and preserved. Of course, it is a much later "copy of", 19th century or more recent, then the price is about right. The painting looks to be older, both from how it is painted and from the look of the panel, but this is hard to judge from a screen only, and as the painting is an oil on canvas that has later be transferred to the panel, the panel doesn't tell us a lot (at least it doesn't look recent...)

If it is a 16th or early 17th century copy of the original painting (now in the Hermitage), then it should be worth at least $10,000. UPDATE: sold for $3,500.