Brueghel the Younger?

Wannenes, from Italy, sells on 1 June 2016 an "Attributed to Pieter Brueghel (1564-1638)" tondo of two farmers or peasants, estimated at 1,600 to 1,800 Euro.

The dates make it clear that this is Brughel the Younger, not Pieter Bruegel the Elder. The quality of the work makes me wonder whether it isn't a Brueghel III though. The painting for sale is considerably more simplistic than many certain Brueghel II works, but matches other works sold (sometimes for a lot of money) as by him.

By far the most closely related picture is the above proverb, for sale (but unsold) at Sotheby's in 2008 for an estimated $500,000 to $700,000!! It has the same dimensions as the one for sale, the same or very similar house to the left and farm in the background, and similar figures. The one for sale also seems to illustrate a proverb. The Sotheby's one was signed though, which is of course a big plus. To me, the one for sale now looks more like a copy of a work from the same series than an original, so the big question is whether it is a contemporary copy, or one made more recently (worst case: made after the Sotheby's sale and inspired by it). It certainly is an interesting one to follow.

An auction searcher colleague  posted me better evidence linking this to Brueghel II: an engraving with the same image, with added text (typical for Brueghel proverb paintings) but a different background. I couldn't find a better quality image though.

What I did find was a drawing by Brueghel II of the two figures, from the Staatliche Kunstsammlungen Dresden.

These two images make it undeniable that the basic composition is by Pieter Brueghel II (or less likely by his father). Coupled with the Sotheby painting, which gives us the correct background, it seems quite certain that the painting for sale is either by Brueghel II or more likely a direct copy after a painting by him (and not a copy after the engraving, which has a different background).

The anatomical knowledge and liveliness of a Brueghel II seems to be lacking, and the painting is also dull and brownish, which all helps to make it a less attractive work than what one expects from an authentic Brueghel II. If you believe it to be 17th century (I have no reason to doubt it, but everything gets faked and copied these days), then it should be worth a lot more than the estimate, at least 10,000 Euro.