Sotheby's Old Master sales: predictions

Sotheby's and Christie's line up their end-of-January Old Master sales. No real "hidden" treasures, obviously, but lots of nice things. For fun, I'll list some I think are overestimated (and hence will or should fail to sell), and some which are seriously undervalued and should go for a lot more than the estimate, if there is any justice in the art world ;-) Today, from the Sotheby's sales, 5 works I think will fail to sell, and 5 which should exceed their highest estimate (but probably won't, of course).

Overestimated

Lot 6,  Quinten Massys, "The Madonna of the Cherries". For some reason, it doesn't work for me. The Madonna and the child just aren't up to par for what should be a masterpiece (well, at $1,500,000 to $2,000,000, one shouldn't expect an average Massys), even though it is a wonderful composition. It sold in 2006 for nearly $750,000, and that's closer to what I would expect it to be worth now. NOT SOLD

Lot 165, a double-sided drawing by Géricault, estimated at a hefty $200,000 to $300,000. Interesting, obviously, but why would anyone spend more than $30,000 on this? When you can buy something like lot 173, also by Géricault, for $40,000, or many other interesting and good drawings for similar figures in the same auction? SOLD FOR $185,000.

Lot 201, a "Saint Anthony" from the Florentine School, fourth quarter of the 15th century. That's the period and place that gave us Botticelli, Donatello, Ghirlandaio, ... This is basically a second- or third-rate painting, in a poor condition, and with not the most attractive subject. So I have no idea why it is estimated at a hefty $40,000 to $60,000 Euro. Obviously you can't buy anything from these masters for that price, but even in these auctions, there is a lot more value for money to be found if you have 50 thousand dollars to spare. Sold for $31,250.

Lot 231, Flemish School, ca. 1500. While that seems correct, what an utterly boring picture. "Head of a saint", estimated at $18,000 to $25,000. Compared to the only slightly later Nativity I discussed in this post, estimated at only $3,000, or plenty of other Early Netherlandish pictures, I see no redeeming features in this one and no reason for such an inflated estimate. Probably, like with most of these I consider overrated, I'm just missing something... NOT SOLD

Lot 407, Circle of Hugo Van der Goes, "Virgin and Child", estimated at $15,000 to $20,000. Normally, anything resembling a Van der Goes for this money would go in the "underrated" category, even though he is one of the least attractive major Early Netherlandish painters. But I don't see anything that would put this in the "circle of", more in the "very weak imitation of" region. The face of the Virgin has some charm, but not enough to make this worth the estimate. NOT SOLD

Underrated

 Lot 77 , Gerard Seghers, ''Annunciation''. A wonderful picture, oil on copper (large for an on-copper painting, though smaller than the usual majestic panel paintings),  this is valued at only $80,000 to $120,000. One of the best pictures in the auction, but not by one of the canonic names, it should exceed its upper estimate. But considering the prices Seghers usually fetches, the estimate may be well considered and my opinion merely wishful thinking...NOT SOLD

 

Lot 191, Circle of Rubens,"Head of a young woman", estimated at only $5,000 to $7,000. A very attractive drawing, with a not so nice scratch or mark diagonally across the face but otherwise in good condition and very nicely executed. No idea who made it, but it obviously was a very talented draughtsman. Compared to many other drawings in this auction, this is one of the few I'ld really like to own. Sold for $13,750 or nearly twice the highest estimate!

Lot 237, "Virgin and Child enthroned with musical angels", Bruges School, ca. 1500. Estimated at $50,000 to $70,000, this is a lot for an anonymous (not even a notname) work, but you get about the best Early Netherlandish painting you can buy for this money. The only (major) worrying thing is that this was for sale two years ago at the same auction at Sotheby's, then estimated at $80,000 to $120,000, which is what I would consider it worth as well, but the market clearly doesn't agreed then... Sold for $62,500.

Lot 426, Circle of Rubens, "A monk", Estimated as $8,000 to $12,000. Not a sleeper Rubens, but a very nice picture nevertheless, with real character in the portrait. The background is depressing, but the smile of the man makes more than up for this. Compared to the "circle" of Van der Goes above, this one really is worth the label, and is clearly made by a skilled painter. Sold for $11,250.

Lot 455, Workshop of Velazquez, "The buffoon Diego de Acedo, El Prime", estimated at $6,000 to $8,000. If the above Circle of Rubens is underestimated, then what about this Workshop picture? A powerful portrait, with style and vigour, for $6,000? It's a steal, usually for that price you get either rather mediocre paintings, or 19th century or later works, but  rarely such a good work. Yes, it is a partial copy of a famous Velazquez original, but it works as a stand-alone portrait and is painted beautifully. The market clearly agreed, as it sold for $25,000!